There have been several notable surprises throughout the season in how teams have lined up in our rankings. As expected, our Week 11 BES Rankings are no exception. It shouldn’t shock anyone to see the Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) top our rankings for the first time this season. However, it might stun some to see which team came in at No. 10 this week.
In Week 11, the BES registered an 8-6 (.571) record using our Week 10 rankings to predict outcomes. Consequently, our record on the season now stands at 90-55 (.621). In terms of the last four weeks, the BES is 38-16 (.704) in terms of being predictive.
Chargers Crack BES Top-10 Despite Losing Record – We’ve been aware of the momentum the Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) have been generating under the hood of the BES for several weeks now. However, it’s finally bubbled to the surface in our Week 11 BES Rankings.
Granted, the Chargers four wins came against teams with a combined record of 14-26. However, they were highly competitive in losses to the Eagles (9-1), Jaguars (7-3) and Patriots (8-2), losing those contests by an average of 4.3 points.
This is the first time in the current BES system that a sub .500 team has breached the BES Top-10. Still, anchored by a hot No. 5 BES Defense and armed with a versatile offense, the Chargers could potentially be on the verge of a late-season run.
Eagles Comfortably Perched at No. 1 – After four weeks of trailing the red-hot New Orleans Saints (8-2), the Eagles finally claimed the top spot as their own. With each passing week, the Eagles have consistently demonstrated dominance in all phases of the game.
Under the guidance of second-year quarterback Carson Wentz, they now own the No. 1 BES Offense complimented by a BES Defense that has risen from No. 9 to No. 6. Nonetheless, they still have more to prove.
Despite their daunting 3.48 BES Overall score, they carry a woeful SOS of 2.07, lowest among all 32 teams. Therefore, major tests await the Eagles when they face the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) and Los Angeles Rams (8-3) on the road in Weeks 13 and 14 respectively.
Notable Risers and Sliders
- New England Patriots (+.09) – While the increase may seem negligible, the fact that the defending World Champions are building momentum late in the season is noteworthy. The Patriots under coach Bill Belichick have shown a knack for getting hot on the eve of the postseason en route to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy .
- Atlanta Falcons (+.26) – The Falcons were featured last week after a +.17 point increase that propelled them a close 34-31 win over the Seahawks in Week 11. But will the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) derail this train in Week 13?
- New Orleans Saints (-.12) – The Saints managed a thrilling come-from-behind win over the Washington Redskins in Week 11. But the hard-fought contest sapped some of their steam causing them to slip to No. 3 this week.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-.18) – The Chiefs (6-4) are now 1-4 in their last five games and appear completely dysfunctional on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Chargers have jumped +.25 points. Can they snatch the AFC West from the Chiefs weakening grasp?
Ball Security: Kansas City Chiefs (3.26)
Pass Protection: New England Patriots (3.44)
Point Yield: Philadelphia Eagles (3.48)
Ball Control: New Orleans Saints (3.15)
Point Suppression: Jacksonville Jaguars (3.61)
Pass Pressure: New Orleans Saints (3.49)
Takeaways: New York Jets (3.79)
BES Games of Week 12
- Vikings (No. 5) @ Lions (No. 11): The Vikings were impressive at home in their Week 11 win over the Rams. But this is a different beast…a road game against the Lions (6-4), a divisional foe with a +.18 increase in BES Overall.
- Saints (No. 3) @ Rams (No. 6): Does it get any better than this? Todd Gurley vs Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara headlining two top-10 BES Offenses against and a pair of top-five BES Defenses? No it does not!