All has been quiet at besreport.com since the conclusion of the 2015 regular season. Though there have been no posts over the course of the offseason and preseason, we have still been quite busy behind the scenes toiling and tinkering with the BES under the hood to make it deeper and, hopefully, more accurate for 2016. There’s been several significant changes and upgrades intended to provide our readers with a more thorough weekly report this season.
Last year, the Jets (10-6) finished atop our final Week 17 rankings but failed to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Broncos (12-4) finished 18th in our final report and went on to win the Super Bowl. With the latest additions to the BES, it is extremely unlikely that will happen again. Here’s a look at the major changes to the BES:
Strength of Schedule
Strength of Schedule (SOS) is now a more influential component to the BES that will dynamically change throughout the course of the season based on how a team’s previous opponents perform each week.
SOS is now incorporated into every team’s overall score and will also be included with the categorical data provided in the 32-team report. This way our readers will be able to track how each team’s SOS fluctuates over the course of the season and see how it impacts that team’s upcoming match-up.
Category vs Category
This season will be the first that the BES calculates category vs category data and incorporates it into a team’s categorical and overall scores. For example: if Team A has a 3.92 in Pass Protection against Team B’s 2.15 Pass Rush heading into their match-up and Team B registers eight sacks on Team A, this will profoundly effect those respective categorical and overall scores for both teams.
What this means for our readers is more accurate categorical scores as well BES Offense and BES Defense rankings. These will be more accurate as the season progresses due to teams facing more opponents and accumulating more data.
Team Record, Ranking, Points Favored and Points Allowed
This year the BES will begin taking into account a team’s win/loss record, its ranking in the league/conference/division and its Points Favored vs Points Allowed and incorporate that data into the team’s BES Overall score. The reason for this there are countless variables involved in winning football games and outscoring opponents.
What this will do is ensure the teams in the BES Top-10 ultimately deserve to be there and show our readers which teams are playing the best football heading into their next match-up.
Previously our scoring scale ranged from 1.00 to 4.00 but this year we’ve expanded to range from 0.00 to 5.00. The reason for this is we encountered team categorical and BES overall scores during our testing that fell outside of the 1.00-4.00 range. This is due primarily to the new category vs category and strength of schedule modifiers impacting the data.
To put it simply, any team finishing the season with a BES Overall score below 1.00 will likely be in the market for a new coach and/or general manager. Conversely, a team with a final BES Overall score above 4.00 will go down as one the most dominant in the history of the league.
Looking forward to the 2016 season!
Now that we have a newly revamped BES system powered up and ready to crunch numbers, we are eagerly anticipating the kickoff to the 2016 regular season and all of the drama that comes with it. We hope you will check in regularly for our rankings which will launch in Week 2. Until then, we want to wish your for favorite team(s) good luck and good health. See you soon!