The BES Report An Innovative Look at NFL Team Performance
As of Week 5 the BES is 29-16 (.644) in predicting the outcome of games. That’s not a bad percentage considering that a 64% win rate over the course of a 16-game season equals 10 wins, good enough for a wildcard berth in the postseason.
As for this week’s rankings, there is little movement to report among the Top-10. The group is unchanged in terms of its members from our Week 4 Rankings.
However, the BES was more impressed with the Bengals (5-0) come-from-behind, overtime win over the Seahawks (2-3) than it was with the Broncos (5-0) victory over the Raiders (2-3). Therefore, the Bengals move up to No. 3 thus demoting the Broncos to No. 4.
We speculated last week that the Seahawks had the potential to upset the Bengals. That outcome appeared eminent when the Seahawks went up 24-7 entering the fourth quarter. But the Bengals overcame that monstrous 17-point deficit with 20 unanswered points of their own to win 27-24.
That game encapsulates the resiliency and resolve of the BES Top-10 in Week 5. Like the Bengals, the Falcons (No. 2), Steelers (No. 10) and Broncos edged out wins in tight contests.
The Steelers, in particular, with their clutch, on-the-road 24-20 conquest of the Chargers (No. 13) did enough to hold on to their spot in the Top-10. A loss would’ve likely seen them replaced by the Bills (No. 11).
Outside the Top-10, we have an intriguing cluster of NFC East teams ranked 15-18. Of that division, the Giants (No. 16) have the best record at 3-2 and the most momentum. This only fuels the anticipation of their Week 6, Monday night clash with the Eagles (No. 17).
In our offensive and defensive rankings, we see the Packers gaining considerable strength on defense, moving up from No. 8 to No. 5 with a score of 2.78. That’s particularly daunting considering the Packers offense is ranked No. 2 by the BES with a 3.11 making them the most formidable team in the NFC.
Our DBs are trash
They already won their contracts so winning games isn’t so important
Chiefs def sucks
fire sutton
Chiefs losing Charles to injury and Defense falling asleep in 2nd half vs a Jay Cutler offense….yep sounds about right.
Pathetic….
We need to blitz! Blitz blitz blitz! Make the qb beat us with fast accurate passes or get lit up!
Their rankings would go up considerably if the offense could convert on 3rd down. By the 4th quarter the defense is gasping for air.
Brendon Downey good point. Defense has done its part many times but the offense could never capitalize – Dez
Weak secondary, weak play calling, and QB who is and will always be average Clint Clint Switzer
He should’ve been fired after that loss to the colts during the wild card.
I’ve been telling you, it’s a coaching issue on both sides of the ball.
Ure pretty accurate on this report. Even on the Bengals but they knuckled up and got that win
Yeah that was one hell of a comeback by the Bengals. Championship caliber stuff for sure.
Let’s see what happen when they play the Steelers and when/if they get into the playoffs
Hate to give them this much credit but I would’ve thought the bengals would be a little higher. Seahawks D is still amongst the top in the league and the bengals came from 17 down on them. But nonetheless I agree with the report
The Bengals probably would be higher but there’s not a lot of elbow room in that Top-5. Seahawks defense is not rated that high by the BES. But they are moving up since Kam Chancellor came back.
I feel you on that