As of Week 5 the BES is 29-16 (.644) in predicting the outcome of games. That’s not a bad percentage considering that a 64% win rate over the course of a 16-game season equals 10 wins, good enough for a wildcard berth in the postseason.
As for this week’s rankings, there is little movement to report among the Top-10. The group is unchanged in terms of its members from our Week 4 Rankings.
However, the BES was more impressed with the Bengals (5-0) come-from-behind, overtime win over the Seahawks (2-3) than it was with the Broncos (5-0) victory over the Raiders (2-3). Therefore, the Bengals move up to No. 3 thus demoting the Broncos to No. 4.
We speculated last week that the Seahawks had the potential to upset the Bengals. That outcome appeared eminent when the Seahawks went up 24-7 entering the fourth quarter. But the Bengals overcame that monstrous 17-point deficit with 20 unanswered points of their own to win 27-24.
That game encapsulates the resiliency and resolve of the BES Top-10 in Week 5. Like the Bengals, the Falcons (No. 2), Steelers (No. 10) and Broncos edged out wins in tight contests.
The Steelers, in particular, with their clutch, on-the-road 24-20 conquest of the Chargers (No. 13) did enough to hold on to their spot in the Top-10. A loss would’ve likely seen them replaced by the Bills (No. 11).
Outside the Top-10, we have an intriguing cluster of NFC East teams ranked 15-18. Of that division, the Giants (No. 16) have the best record at 3-2 and the most momentum. This only fuels the anticipation of their Week 6, Monday night clash with the Eagles (No. 17).
In our offensive and defensive rankings, we see the Packers gaining considerable strength on defense, moving up from No. 8 to No. 5 with a score of 2.78. That’s particularly daunting considering the Packers offense is ranked No. 2 by the BES with a 3.11 making them the most formidable team in the NFC.